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From: Ray on 18 Jun 2010 12:23
On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 19:22:37 -0400, dr_jeff <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote:


>
>If every manufactured product had a 2% failure range, then the space
>shuttle would never have gotten off the ground, because it is made from
>hundreds of thousands of components.
>
That is 2% for the total system. Richard Feynman predicted that the
space shuttle would have that sort of failure. He was proved correct
when they have crashed in about 1 in 50 missions.
From: Mike Hunter on 18 Jun 2010 19:00
I guess in your world Jeffy everything is perfect. In the real world of
manufacturing most cars today are closer to 1%, when you get above that
average 2% failure rate all hell lets loose, look at what happened to Toyota
recently. After years of building a quality perception, it all fell apart
when they had to recall over 9,500,000 vehicles around the world.

Reminds me of the first "car" Toyota, which was in reality a truck with a
car body, exported to the US back in 1957. A friend of mine, long gone,
owned a Dodge dealership and purchased a Toyota franchise, that is today
Toyotas oldest dealership. Because I was well known locally in the
automobile business, he asked me to buy a Toyopet for $600 . He ask me to
show it around, if you don't want to keep it, he said; I'll buy it back
within a year for $600. Six months later I took it back, it was a real
turkey that could not get out of its own way on the mountains, rattled and
was always stalling. To say their cars were over the 2%, back then, would
be kind.

Toyota built its quality perception while it was selling hundreds of
thousands of vehicles, now that they are running with the big dogs and
selling cars in the millions, their 2% is becoming more noticeable. If one
doubts that just look at all the late model Toyotas one sees on the lots of
all the other brands where they were traded. Logic says if they were so
much better than other brands, why did the owner not buy another Toyota?


"dr_jeff" <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote in message news:4C1BCEF8.1060009(a)msu.edu...
> Ray wrote:
>> On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 19:22:37 -0400, dr_jeff <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote:
>>
>>
>>> If every manufactured product had a 2% failure range, then the space
>>> shuttle would never have gotten off the ground, because it is made from
>>> hundreds of thousands of components.
>>>
>> That is 2% for the total system. Richard Feynman predicted that the
>> space shuttle would have that sort of failure. He was proved correct
>> when they have crashed in about 1 in 50 missions.
>
> Look at how many missions were delayed because of problems with the
> computers, motors, fuel leaks, etc. It is far higher than 2% of the
> missions.
>
> Jeff


From: Stewart on 19 Jun 2010 00:53

"dr_jeff" <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote in message
news:pfSdnW3IC5egM4fRnZ2dnUVZ_hmdnZ2d(a)giganews.com...
> Mike Hunter wrote:
>> The problems that may show up early on are the best indicator of
>> overall build quality, but the fact remains ALL vehicles fall
>> within the 2% failure range for ALL manufactured products,
>
> Bull. Not ALL manufactured products have a "2% failure range." If I
> am incorrect, prove it.

A 2% failure rate would be the death of most all medical devices.
Even a 2% complaint rate could lead to a recall (not every complaint
is a failure, but all need to be investigated and probable root cause
established).

>
> If every manufactured product had a 2% failure range, then the space
> shuttle would never have gotten off the ground, because it is made
> from hundreds of thousands of components. Buildings would be falling
> down all the time, because girders would be breaking during
> construction.
>
> If you were correct, then the average number of defects would be
> about 2 per 100 cars, not 100 to 200 per 100 cars, as it is.
>
> This has been pointed out to you in the past. And you still don't
> understand that 100 problems per 100 vehicles is a not a 2% failure
> rate.
>
>> that is why they all have a warranty, even Rolls Royce.
>> Differences of 1% are meaningless. EVERY manufacturer is making
>> great cars today.
>
> Maybe they all make some good cars, but not all cars are great.
>
>> The only REAL difference among them is style and price.
>
> Really?
>
>> My advise, when people ask for my advise because of my experience
>> in building, selling, and servicing vehicles, is to test drive
>> those three or more that best suits your needs, then get a total
>> DRIVE HOME PRICE including selling price, dealer add-ons and
>> financing costs, if you must finance, from at least TWO dealers of
>> the top two or three models you choose then buy your vehicle from
>> the dealer nearest you home that gives you the best price and has
>> the lowest shop rate.
>>
>> It never made sense to me when I was in retail, why some people are
>> willing to pay 20% to 30% more for some of our brands because they
>> thought they were "better."
>
> Gee buying something better for 20% or 30% more is a good idea, if
> it is better. I paid a lot more for my Apples than I would have for
> HP's or Dells, but I got better computers. I definitely got a better
> buy with more more expensive Apple than had I bought a cheaper HP or
> Dell.

That would be a better computer for you, probably not a better
computer for me (even though I prefer them).

>
>> Thinking you will not get one of the 2%, is foolish at best.
>
> What 2%? Just about all cars have defects, with defects around 100
> per 100 vehicles.
>
> You didn't know what you were talking about before.
>
> And you don't know what you're talking about now.
>
>> The odds are far greater that you will get one of the 98% that are
>> trouble free.
>
> Really? Very few cars are totally trouble free. The average number
> of defects per car is about one defecte per car (108 defects per 100
> cars).
> http://businesscenter.jdpower.com/news/pressrelease.aspx?ID=2010099
>

I've had one that I know of that was taken care of by the tranny
recall. Of course, some may a different perception of what a defect
is.......they all get counted, even the phantom defects.

>> Personally, I run two cars (trade or sell the one that is two years
>> old) and get a new vehicle every year. I Email a list of what I
>> want in the vehicle, to the Group or Fleet Sales Manager(s) at
>> numerous dealerships for a bid price. Then I visit the
>> dealerships that give me a price, closest to what I know I should
>> be paying for the car as equipped, and get a total drive home price
>> if I end up trading my car.
>
> Good for you.

Yes....I usually pay cash and drive it until the wheels fall
off....(figuratively speaking).


From: Ray O on 19 Jun 2010 12:09

"Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2(a)lycos,com> wrote in message
news:jJ6dnRFG9shzZ4bRnZ2dnUVZ_rudnZ2d(a)ptd.net...
<snipped>
>
> Reminds me of the first "car" Toyota, which was in reality a truck with a
> car body, exported to the US back in 1957. A friend of mine, long gone,
> owned a Dodge dealership and purchased a Toyota franchise, that is today
> Toyotas oldest dealership. Because I was well known locally in the
> automobile business, he asked me to buy a Toyopet for $600 . He ask me
> to show it around, if you don't want to keep it, he said; I'll buy it back
> within a year for $600. Six months later I took it back, it was a real
> turkey that could not get out of its own way on the mountains, rattled and
> was always stalling. To say their cars were over the 2%, back then, would
> be kind.
>

Actually, the first passenger cars that Toyota imported to the U.S. never
sold and were returned to Japan after a year. The dealer in Hollywood was
located at the top of a hill and the only way to get the car back to the
showroom after a test drive was to put it in reverse and back up the last
block to the showroom. I guess customers were not too impressed with those
cars so Toyota sold the Land Cruiser for a couple of years and re-introduced
the Toyopet in the U.S. around 1959. You probably got the "new and
improved" Toyopet. ;-)

BTW, I met a retired guy last week who may have worked with you in Dearborn,
he worked on steering & suspension design. He would talk for hours on all
sorts of subjects, but I think he said he worked on the Fox chassis?
--

Ray O
(correct punctuation to reply)




From: Mike Hunter on 19 Jun 2010 12:50
Need I say, do your own homework once again? It is the average failure RATE
among all manufactured products that falls between a just below 1% and up to
near 2%. That is the rate for cars today as well if you look at the
various J.D. Powers owners surveys for what they actually are, a listing by
PERCENTAGE, that why the says PER HUNDRED, dummy.


"Stewart" <gortamus(a)gmail.com> wrote in message
news:hvhigl$1nv$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
>
> "dr_jeff" <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote in message
> news:pfSdnW3IC5egM4fRnZ2dnUVZ_hmdnZ2d(a)giganews.com...
>> Mike Hunter wrote:
>>> The problems that may show up early on are the best indicator of overall
>>> build quality, but the fact remains ALL vehicles fall within the 2%
>>> failure range for ALL manufactured products,
>>
>> Bull. Not ALL manufactured products have a "2% failure range." If I am
>> incorrect, prove it.
>
> A 2% failure rate would be the death of most all medical devices. Even a
> 2% complaint rate could lead to a recall (not every complaint is a
> failure, but all need to be investigated and probable root cause
> established).
>
>>
>> If every manufactured product had a 2% failure range, then the space
>> shuttle would never have gotten off the ground, because it is made from
>> hundreds of thousands of components. Buildings would be falling down all
>> the time, because girders would be breaking during construction.
>>
>> If you were correct, then the average number of defects would be about 2
>> per 100 cars, not 100 to 200 per 100 cars, as it is.
>>
>> This has been pointed out to you in the past. And you still don't
>> understand that 100 problems per 100 vehicles is a not a 2% failure rate.
>>
>>> that is why they all have a warranty, even Rolls Royce. Differences of
>>> 1% are meaningless. EVERY manufacturer is making great cars today.
>>
>> Maybe they all make some good cars, but not all cars are great.
>>
>>> The only REAL difference among them is style and price.
>>
>> Really?
>>
>>> My advise, when people ask for my advise because of my experience in
>>> building, selling, and servicing vehicles, is to test drive those three
>>> or more that best suits your needs, then get a total DRIVE HOME PRICE
>>> including selling price, dealer add-ons and financing costs, if you must
>>> finance, from at least TWO dealers of the top two or three models you
>>> choose then buy your vehicle from the dealer nearest you home that gives
>>> you the best price and has the lowest shop rate.
>>>
>>> It never made sense to me when I was in retail, why some people are
>>> willing to pay 20% to 30% more for some of our brands because they
>>> thought they were "better."
>>
>> Gee buying something better for 20% or 30% more is a good idea, if it is
>> better. I paid a lot more for my Apples than I would have for HP's or
>> Dells, but I got better computers. I definitely got a better buy with
>> more more expensive Apple than had I bought a cheaper HP or Dell.
>
> That would be a better computer for you, probably not a better computer
> for me (even though I prefer them).
>
>>
>>> Thinking you will not get one of the 2%, is foolish at best.
>>
>> What 2%? Just about all cars have defects, with defects around 100 per
>> 100 vehicles.
>>
>> You didn't know what you were talking about before.
>>
>> And you don't know what you're talking about now.
>>
>>> The odds are far greater that you will get one of the 98% that are
>>> trouble free.
>>
>> Really? Very few cars are totally trouble free. The average number of
>> defects per car is about one defecte per car (108 defects per 100 cars).
>> http://businesscenter.jdpower.com/news/pressrelease.aspx?ID=2010099
>>
>
> I've had one that I know of that was taken care of by the tranny recall.
> Of course, some may a different perception of what a defect is.......they
> all get counted, even the phantom defects.
>
>>> Personally, I run two cars (trade or sell the one that is two years old)
>>> and get a new vehicle every year. I Email a list of what I want in
>>> the vehicle, to the Group or Fleet Sales Manager(s) at numerous
>>> dealerships for a bid price. Then I visit the dealerships that give me
>>> a price, closest to what I know I should be paying for the car as
>>> equipped, and get a total drive home price if I end up trading my car.
>>
>> Good for you.
>
> Yes....I usually pay cash and drive it until the wheels fall
> off....(figuratively speaking).
>


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