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From: C. E. White on 28 Feb 2010 17:44
I reviewed the complaints in the NHTSA Complaint Database for complaints
against 1991 to 2001 Ford Explorers (covers generation 1 and generation 2
models, both 2 door and 4 door models) related to either suspension or
tires. There were a total of 4839 complaints in these areas as of today
(2/28/2010). 3,988 of these complaints were tire related. The rest were
suspension related. The complaints included reports of 1062 injuries and 152
deaths. 975 injuries and 143 deaths were associated with tire related
problems. The rest were related to suspension related complaints.
"Rollover" was mentioned in 112 of these complaints. These 112 complaints
include reports of 167 injuries and 29 death. Only 25 of these rollover
complaints were for the Generation 1 Explorers (1991-2004). This is the
model that is referenced in the engineering documents that are often cited
in the bottom feeder attack web sites. There has not been even one tire
related rollover complaint since the tire recall was completed. What does
that tell you?

I also review complaints against Generation 2 and Generation 3 Toyota
4Runner Models (1990-2002). I did not include the original version
(Generation 1 984-1989; it was basically a pick-up with a camper shell, was
sold in limited numbers, and had a very very bad safety record and likely
appealed to a different audience than the Explorer and later model 4Runnes).
There were a total of 228 complaints in these areas as of today (2/28/2010).
137 of these complaints were tire related. The rest were suspension related.
The complaints included reports of 34 injuries and 3 deaths. 14 injuries
and 1 deaths were associated with tire related problems.

I am having a hard time finding the exact Ford Explorer sales for 1991
though 2001, but it is around 4,500,000. 1990-2002 4Runner Sales totaled
about 20% that many (say 1,000,000). I have no way of know how many vehicle
miles are represented by these vehicles (don't know how anyone else does
either except by estimating number of vehicles times number of year times
estimated average miles per year).

So based solely on complaints (Not FARS Data, but rather NHTSA complaints),
1991-2001 Explorers experienced about 0.00003 deaths per vehicle sold.
1990-2002 4Runners experienced about 0.00003 deaths per vehicle
sold.......essentially the same.

So, tell why do you keep making up lies implying that Explorers were
particularly dangerous? Despite being burdened by a very large number of
complaints related to the failure of Firestone tires, Explorers had no more
"deaths per vehicle sold" than 4Runners.

The data I used is freely available to all (see
http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/downloads/index.cfm ).



Ed

From: C. E. White on 1 Mar 2010 23:46
Tonight I thought I'd take a crack at the FARS database to dispel "jim
bean's" lies about Explorers. The FARS database is a compilation of accident
statistics from across the US. They are multiple databases available by year
and they have an on-line query tool. I picked the year 2000 as my target
years. This was about the time of the Firestone tire fiasco and seemed a
reasonable year to pick. I don't have enough time to do all the years, so I
tried to pick one that was meaningful.

For the year 2000 here is what I found:

In the year 2000, 1991 to 2001 Model Years Explorers of all types (2WD, 4WD,
2 Dr, 4 Dr) were involved in 494 rollover accidents which resulted in 506
death. There was somewhat more than 4,000,000 Explorers on the road in the
year 2000. So the chance of any one Explorer being involved in a rollover
during the year was about 1 in 8,000

For comparison purposes:

In the year 2000, Generation 2 and 3 Toyota 4Runners (1990 to 2000 Model
Years) were involved in 97 rollover accidents resulting in 100 deaths. I
estimate there were around 900,000 Gen 2 and Gen 3 4Runners on US Highways
in the year 2000. So the chance of any one Generation 2 or 3 4Runner being
involved in a rollover accident in the year 2000 was about 1 in 9,000

Not much difference between the two is there? AND, If you only compare 4dr
Explorers to 4Runners, the Explorer actually does better than the 4Runner .
Unlike the Explorer, the 4Runners only came in one wheelbase for each
generation and there were no 2 Door 4Runners after 1993 (2 door Explorers
had a shorter wheelbase than 4 door Explorers which made them less stable
and they actually fall into a different size class) . The comparison between
4 door Explorers and 4Runners is shown below:

In the year 2000, 1991 to 2001 Model Years 4 Door Explorers (2WD & 4WD,)
were involved in 315 rollover accidents which resulted in 331 deaths. There
were probably more than 3,000,000 4 Door Explorers on the road in the year
2000. So the chance of any one 4 Door Explorer being involved in a rollover
during the year was about 1 in 9,500, which is slightly better than the
nearest Toyota competitor (the 4Runner).

I estimated the number of each type of vehicle still on the road in 2000.
The FARS database doesn't include that number. RL Polk registration could
provide the data, but they charge for it and I am not willing to send money
on this. I am basing my estimates of the number of Explorers on average
yearly sales during the 1990's of around 450,000 each year. About 80% were
four doors. 4 Runner sales were relatively low in the early 1990 and peaked
around 1999 at about 125,000 per year. I am guessing yearly sales averaged
around 90,000 from 1990 to 2000 (10 x 90,000 = 900,000). You can quibble
with these numbers, but I am at least in the ballpark. There is no way you
can mal-adjust them enough to match up with your wild claims about Explorers
being particularly likely to roll over. The facts say they were not. I am
sure trial lawyers can twist statistics to say whatever they want to claim.
But the truth is, the facts don't support the claim that Explorers were
particularly prone to rolling over.

If you want to know the truth, and you don't trust me, you can check for
yourself. Go to ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/FARS and download the accident data
for 2000 and sort away.

Ed

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