What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?
in [Toyota]
|
From: clare on 27 Oct 2009 15:41 On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:33:54 +0000 (UTC), Tegger <invalid(a)invalid.inv> wrote: >"C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)removemindspring.com> wrote in news:4ae70c7c$1 >@kcnews01: > >> A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all >> Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to >> be a very low number to me. What do other think? >> > > >I guess it depends where you live. In my area (the Rust Belt of north- >eastern North America), Toyota's number seems impossibly high, unless that >missing 20% is all concentrated up here. > >My personal guess, based on my visual observations while on the road each >day, is that overall the percentage of cars (not just Toyotas) still in >daily use after 20 years would be more like one to five percent. > >I infrequently see cars (of any make) older than about 1992. Cars older >than about 1989 are almost non-existent around here. You need to read the claim. 80% of vehicles sold over the last 20 years are still on the road. This could be true even if NO 20 year old Toyotas were still on the road. There are still a significant number of 1989 Toyotas on the road, particularly in the south, and California (where the majority were sold in the beginning)
From: dr_jeff on 27 Oct 2009 16:24 Mike Hunter wrote: > Most Toyota ads are somewhat deceptive and some are even bogus. Remember > when the Tundra first was introduced? Toyota made a lot of claims that led > some to believe it had things other full size trucks did not have. The > fact was Toyota was finally offering a truck that was closer to the standers > of domestic brands. Then of course there was always the bogus, made in > America claim, when it has always only been assembled in the US, of mostly > parts and materials that were not from the US but from Canada and Japan. It has a similar domestic (Canadian and US) content as the other American trucks (only the F-150 has a higher domestic content). What evidence do have that there is less US content? Jeff > "C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)removemindspring.com> wrote in message > news:4ae70c7c$1(a)kcnews01... >> A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all >> Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be a >> very low number to me. What do other think? >> >> I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last twenty >> years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20 >> years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last >> twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models. >> Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more likely >> to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the >> last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the >> math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually >> declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars >> will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am sure >> the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over >> estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in >> cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered. >> >> Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the NEW >> vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, but maybe >> I am an exception. >> >> Here is sort of what I am thinking.....NOT REAL NUMBERS - >> >> For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year) >> >> Year Original Percent Total >> Sold Sales On road On Road >> 1990 500000 33% 165000 >> 1991 525000 38% 199500 >> 1992 551250 43% 237038 >> 1993 578813 48% 277830 >> 1994 607753 53% 322109 >> 1995 638141 58% 370122 >> 1996 670048 63% 422130 >> 1997 703550 68% 478414 >> 1998 738728 72% 531884 >> 1999 775664 76% 589505 >> 2000 814447 80% 651558 >> 2001 855170 84% 718343 >> 2002 897928 88% 790177 >> 2003 942825 91% 857970 >> 2004 989966 93% 920668 >> 2005 1039464 96% 997886 >> 2006 1091437 97% 1058694 >> 2007 1146009 98% 1123089 >> 2008 1203310 99% 1191277 >> 2009 1263475 99% 1250840 >> Total 16532977 80% 13154033 >> >> For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per year), >> but same percent still on the road: >> >> 1990 1263475 33% 416947 >> 1991 1250840 38% 475319 >> 1992 1238332 43% 532483 >> 1993 1225949 48% 588455 >> 1994 1213689 53% 643255 >> 1995 1201552 58% 696900 >> 1996 1189537 63% 749408 >> 1997 1177641 68% 800796 >> 1998 1165865 72% 839423 >> 1999 1154206 76% 877197 >> 2000 1142664 80% 914131 >> 2001 1131238 84% 950240 >> 2002 1119925 88% 985534 >> 2003 1108726 91% 1008941 >> 2004 1097639 93% 1020804 >> 2005 1086662 96% 1043196 >> 2006 1075796 97% 1043522 >> 2007 1065038 98% 1043737 >> 2008 1054387 99% 1043843 >> 2009 1043843 99% 1033405 >> Total 23007003 73% 16707535 >> >> The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have >> significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20 years >> still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best meaningless, at >> worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always assumed that the >> Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks are the most >> reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data) are deliberately >> misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being espeically misleading, but I >> wonder how many people understand the ad? I'll bet many people think >> Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas are still on the road, instead >> of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last twenty years....isn't marketing >> wonderful. There is a huge difference in the two statements. >> >> Ed >> > >
From: JoeSpareBedroom on 27 Oct 2009 16:30 "dr_jeff" <utz(a)msu.edu> wrote in message news:SqWdnVgKUsWAynrXnZ2dnUVZ_uCdnZ2d(a)giganews.com... > Mike Hunter wrote: >> Most Toyota ads are somewhat deceptive and some are even bogus. Remember >> when the Tundra first was introduced? Toyota made a lot of claims that >> led some to believe it had things other full size trucks did not have. >> The fact was Toyota was finally offering a truck that was closer to the >> standers of domestic brands. Then of course there was always the bogus, >> made in America claim, when it has always only been assembled in the US, >> of mostly parts and materials that were not from the US but from Canada >> and Japan. > > It has a similar domestic (Canadian and US) content as the other American > trucks (only the F-150 has a higher domestic content). What evidence do > have that there is less US content? > > Jeff Because Hunter doesn't like Toyota trucks, he visits Toyota dealerships and reads the content tags on the door jambs. Or at least he imagines doing that during his alcoholic blackouts.
From: Vic Smith on 27 Oct 2009 17:11 On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 11:04:36 -0400, "C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)removemindspring.com> wrote: >A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all >Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to >be a very low number to me. What do other think? > >I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last >twenty years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the >last 20 years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing >over the last twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be >newer models. Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles >that are more likely to still be on the road, the overall percentage >of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the >newer car bias). For GM, the math works the other way. GM sales have >been stagnent or actually declining over the last 20 years, so a >higher percentage of their cars will be older and therefore less >likely to still be on the road. I am sure the 80% number is based on >registrations, so it might be that it over estimates the number >actually in daily use - or under estimates it in cases where cars are >used off road (or illeagally) and not registered. > >Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the >NEW vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, >but maybe I am an exception. > As you say (snipped the rest for brevity) the ad is deceptive. What else is new? Steve Scharf posted this link some time back in a discussion about longevity. http://www.desrosiers.ca/2007%20Update/Documents%20and%20Reports/2007%20OBS/Trends%20in%20Vehicle%20Longevity.pdf It's a bit dated, and GM/Ford/Chrysler is lumped in one bucket, "imports" in another. And it's Canadian. No raw numbers or fine breakdowns, which always disappoints the analyst in me. Because of that I don't really trust it. I don't know the "intent" of the report or who put the numbers together, and how they did it. Call me the eternal skeptic. R.L. Polk is a company that has access to state registration databases. http://usa.polk.com/Industries/Research/ "Polk Used Vehicle Registration Reports Used vehicle registration statistics assist you with stocking inventory, purchasing vehicles at auction as well as identifying market trends and unveiling opportunities. The reports are completely customizable you define the specifications, geography and time-period." I actually called them once to inquire about getting an extract of registration data. Just to satisfy my curiosity about longevity and as a tool in arguments. It was too expensive for that purpose. But with registration data and sales data, longevity is easy enough to figure out. And it's not a high volume of data. Make/Model/Year - maybe cylinders and color, depending on the state. Perhaps 20 bytes max per car, depending. Have to talk to the data guy who knows the format. Breakdowns by state (rust belt vs non-rustbelt) could be done. Of course there are built-in "unknowns" due to vehicles relocating from state to state, but most stay home in one state. Here's an example of why color could be useful, if only to satisfy curiosity. I've got a white '97 Lumina. Good runner, basically repair-free. Just did a 3K mile trip to Florida with it. About 150k miles on it. Thing is, a lot of these white Luminas suffer from peeling paint. Comes off in big honking sheets, leaving the undercoat. I stopped mine pretty early by pulling off the loose stuff and sealing the edges and covering the primer with a few cans of spay paint. Doesn't look very good when close, but I don't care. I've seen a lot of these white Luminas with the poor paint. Wonder how many get junked early because of that paint. Most people just won't put up with that. Just curious. But that's the type of thing that will show up in the numbers. But you have to have the numbers. Otherwise you're dealing with anecdotes. --Vic >
From: Hachiroku ハチロク on 27 Oct 2009 17:29
C. E. White wrote: > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. And I personally own about half of them... |