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From: Ray O on 4 Dec 2009 12:10

"C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:hfb1hk$rlm$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
>I just looked at the Auto News website and they only show Toyota sales up
>3% for November. The Toyota news release claims Toyota USA sales were up
>11.5% (Toyota division up 9.8%, Lexus up 22.2%). Interesting they glossed
>over the decline in Scion sales. Although the Auto News web site and the
>TMS news release posted different percentage increases, the number of
>vehicles sold is in a agreement (133,700). I found this confusing, so I
>looked further.
>
> Toyota is basing the 11.5% increase on average number of vehicle sales
> per day, not total sales for the month. Toyota claims that in Novemeber
> 2009 there 23 selling days. In 2008, they claim there were 25 selling
> days. According to AUto News, last year Toyota USA (Lexus + Toyota +
> Scion) sold 130,307 vehicles, or 5,212.28 per day. This year Toyota USA
> sold 133,700 vehicles, or 5,813.04 per day, an increase on a daily basis
> of 600.76, which is 11.5%. I suppose this is one way to do it, but it
> seems a little hinky to me. Using the same logic, GM sales were up nearly
> 7% for November, although they actually sold fewer vehicles in November
> 2009, than in November 2008.
>
> I wonder how they decided November 2009 had fewer selling days than 2008?
> In 2009, there were 5 Sundays (1, 8,15, 22, 29) and two theoretical
> holidays (Thanksgiving and Veterans Day?). This implies 30-(2+5) = 23.
> However, where I live the dealers were open on Veternas Day and the Friday
> after Thanksgiving, so that means there were at least 24 selling days in
> Novemeber in some areas. In 2008, there were also 5 Sundays (2, 9 16, 23,
> 20), and two theoretical holidays, yet Toyota claims there were 25 selling
> Days in November of 2008. How can they do this? I guess the net is,
> Toyota, while not openly lying, is playing around with number to make it
> seem if they are doing a lot better than they really are. I am suprised
> that GM doesn't use this sort of convenient math to claim a sales
> increase as well.
>
> For comparison, using the more accurate (in my opinion) Auto News
> reporting scheme (total monthly sales), Toyota did OK in November (up 3%).
> Ford held steady (up ~ 0.1%). Even GM didn't suffer too much (down 2%).
> The real star was Hyundai, up 34% compared to November of last year.
> Subaru was also up greatly (+24%). Nissan did well also (up 21%). VW also
> did OK (up 9%). Others that were up in November 2009 compared to November
> 2008 - Diamler (+9%), Jaguar Land Rover (+20%), Mazda (+1%), Porsche
> (+18%).
>
> Suprisingly Honda was down (-3%). Overall there were about as many cars
> sold in Novemebr of 2009 as were sold in Novemebr of 2008 (747,086 and
> 747,051 respectively).
>
> The Toyota new release did not mention year to date sales. Auto News still
> shows Toyota down 24% for 2009 as a whole (this also happens to be the
> industry decline).
>
> Ed
>

I've seen the reference to daily average sales rate before from other
automakers. I think automakers started announcing the daily average sales
rate as a way to come up with good news in bad times.

Toyota, and I assume other automakers, use daily average sales rate to
allocate vehicles to dealers and as a gauge for how much to ramp production
up or down. Toyota refers to the daily average sales rate as a "travel
rate" and uses it to determine days supply. That said, month-to-date and
year-to-date sales are what get reported on the financial statements.

--

Ray O
(correct punctuation to reply)


From: bob on 4 Dec 2009 22:48
In article <hfbgct$oko$2(a)news.eternal-september.org>,
rokigawa(a)NOSPAMtristarassociates.com says...
>
<snip>
> I've seen the reference to daily average sales rate before from other
> automakers. I think automakers started announcing the daily average sales
> rate as a way to come up with good news in bad times.
>
> Toyota, and I assume other automakers, use daily average sales rate to
> allocate vehicles to dealers and as a gauge for how much to ramp production
> up or down. Toyota refers to the daily average sales rate as a "travel
> rate" and uses it to determine days supply. That said, month-to-date and
> year-to-date sales are what get reported on the financial statements.

Actually, daily average sales has been used for many years in the auto
industry.

Other industries will report various periodic sales figures and note any
variance in the number of selling days in the current vs. previous
selling period. Both the Jan - Mar and Apr - Jun quarters can be
affected by the date of Easter.

HTH,

Bob



From: in2dadark on 5 Dec 2009 14:32


Ray O wrote:
> "C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)mindspring.com> wrote in message
> news:hfb1hk$rlm$1(a)news.eternal-september.org...
> >I just looked at the Auto News website and they only show Toyota sales up
> >3% for November. The Toyota news release claims Toyota USA sales were up
> >11.5% (Toyota division up 9.8%, Lexus up 22.2%). Interesting they glossed
> >over the decline in Scion sales. Although the Auto News web site and the
> >TMS news release posted different percentage increases, the number of
> >vehicles sold is in a agreement (133,700). I found this confusing, so I
> >looked further.
> >
> > Toyota is basing the 11.5% increase on average number of vehicle sales
> > per day, not total sales for the month. Toyota claims that in Novemeber
> > 2009 there 23 selling days. In 2008, they claim there were 25 selling
> > days. According to AUto News, last year Toyota USA (Lexus + Toyota +
> > Scion) sold 130,307 vehicles, or 5,212.28 per day. This year Toyota USA
> > sold 133,700 vehicles, or 5,813.04 per day, an increase on a daily basis
> > of 600.76, which is 11.5%. I suppose this is one way to do it, but it
> > seems a little hinky to me. Using the same logic, GM sales were up nearly
> > 7% for November, although they actually sold fewer vehicles in November
> > 2009, than in November 2008.
> >
> > I wonder how they decided November 2009 had fewer selling days than 2008?
> > In 2009, there were 5 Sundays (1, 8,15, 22, 29) and two theoretical
> > holidays (Thanksgiving and Veterans Day?). This implies 30-(2+5) = 23.
> > However, where I live the dealers were open on Veternas Day and the Friday
> > after Thanksgiving, so that means there were at least 24 selling days in
> > Novemeber in some areas. In 2008, there were also 5 Sundays (2, 9 16, 23,
> > 20), and two theoretical holidays, yet Toyota claims there were 25 selling
> > Days in November of 2008. How can they do this? I guess the net is,
> > Toyota, while not openly lying, is playing around with number to make it
> > seem if they are doing a lot better than they really are. I am suprised
> > that GM doesn't use this sort of convenient math to claim a sales
> > increase as well.
> >
> > For comparison, using the more accurate (in my opinion) Auto News
> > reporting scheme (total monthly sales), Toyota did OK in November (up 3%).
> > Ford held steady (up ~ 0.1%). Even GM didn't suffer too much (down 2%).
> > The real star was Hyundai, up 34% compared to November of last year.
> > Subaru was also up greatly (+24%). Nissan did well also (up 21%). VW also
> > did OK (up 9%). Others that were up in November 2009 compared to November
> > 2008 - Diamler (+9%), Jaguar Land Rover (+20%), Mazda (+1%), Porsche
> > (+18%).
> >
> > Suprisingly Honda was down (-3%). Overall there were about as many cars
> > sold in Novemebr of 2009 as were sold in Novemebr of 2008 (747,086 and
> > 747,051 respectively).
> >
> > The Toyota new release did not mention year to date sales. Auto News still
> > shows Toyota down 24% for 2009 as a whole (this also happens to be the
> > industry decline).
> >
> > Ed
> >
>
> I've seen the reference to daily average sales rate before from other
> automakers. I think automakers started announcing the daily average sales
> rate as a way to come up with good news in bad times.
>
> Toyota, and I assume other automakers, use daily average sales rate to
> allocate vehicles to dealers and as a gauge for how much to ramp production
> up or down. Toyota refers to the daily average sales rate as a "travel
> rate" and uses it to determine days supply. That said, month-to-date and
> year-to-date sales are what get reported on the financial statements.
>
> --
>
> Ray O
> (correct punctuation to reply)

In related news, bullets are flying off the shelves...
From: C. E. White on 6 Dec 2009 15:30

"bob" <nottooslow42(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.25839405556cc3b7989702(a)news.eternal-september.org...

> Actually, daily average sales has been used for many years in the auto
> industry.

I'd still like to understand why November 2008 had 25 selling days and
November 2009 has only 23. I can see any difference in the number of days,
so I must be missing something.

Ed

From: bob on 6 Dec 2009 21:19
In article <7PCdnQ0mMMvmiYHWnZ2dnUVZ_smdnZ2d(a)earthlink.com>,
cewhite3remove(a)mindspring.com says...
>
> "bob" <nottooslow42(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.25839405556cc3b7989702(a)news.eternal-september.org...
>
> > Actually, daily average sales has been used for many years in the auto
> > industry.
>
> I'd still like to understand why November 2008 had 25 selling days and
> November 2009 has only 23. I can see any difference in the number of days,
> so I must be missing something.
>
> Ed

Ed,

I don't know the answer either. I was just pointing out that contrary to
what someone suspected, this reporting method is not a recent invention
by the automakers to make their sales look better.

Bob

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