From: brad herschel on
On Jul 6, 8:11 am, brad herschel <bradhersc...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Jul 5, 8:15 pm, Steve from Colorado <gass...(a)hushmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Thank an immigrant and the Democratic / Republican parties for the
> > high levels of unemployment and declining wages.  Illegal aliens and
> > workers from India will work for less with fewer or no benefits than
> > you, an American will.  No wonder the Chamber of Commerce hates
> > American workers.
>
> >http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/787...
>
> > With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel
> > like 1932
> > The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest
> > contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are
> > flirting with deflation.
>
> > "The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great
> > Recession," said Robert Reich, former US labour secretary. "All the
> > booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing."
>
> > Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Comment
>
> > "Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May
> > suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we
> > doing about it? Less than nothing," he said.
>
> > California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a
> > 14pc fall in earnings this year due to forced furloughs. Governor
> > Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to the
> > minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit.
>
> > Can Illinois be far behind? The state has a deficit of $12bn and is
> > $5bn in arrears to schools, nursing homes, child care centres, and
> > prisons. "It is getting worse every single day," said state
> > comptroller Daniel Hynes. "We are not paying bills for absolutely
> > essential services. That is obscene."
>
> > Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market
> > altogether over the past two months. That is the only reason why the
> > headline unemployment rate is not exploding to a post-war high.
>
> > Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18
> > months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal
> > stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.
>
> > The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually
> > fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The
> > ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost.
>
> > The average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2
> > weeks. Nothing like this has been seen before in the post-war era.
> > Jeff Weninger, of Harris Private Bank, said this compares with a peak
> > of 21.2 weeks in the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.
>
> > "Legions of individuals have been left with stale skills, and little
> > prospect of finding meaningful work, and benefits that are being
> > exhausted. By our math the crop of people who are unemployed but not
> > receiving a check amounts to 9.2m."
>
> > Republicans on Capitol Hill are filibustering a bill to extend the
> > dole for up to 1.2m jobless facing an imminent cut-off. Dean Heller
> > from Vermont called them "hobos". This really is starting to feel like
> > 1932.
>
> > Washington's fiscal stimulus is draining away. It peaked in the first
> > quarter, yet even then the economy eked out a growth rate of just
> > 2.7pc. This compares with 5.1pc, 9.3pc, 8.1pc and 8.5pc in the four
> > quarters coming off recession in the early 1980s.
>
> > The housing market is already crumbling as government props are pulled
> > away. The expiry of homebuyers' tax credit led to a 30pc fall in the
> > number of buyers signing contracts in May. "It is cataclysmic," said
> > David Bloom from HSBC.
>
> > Federal tax rises are automatically baked into the pie. The
> > Congressional Budget Office said fiscal policy will swing from
> > a net +2pc of GDP to -2pc by late 2011. The states and counties may
> > have to cut as much as $180bn.
>
> > Investors are starting to chew over the awful possibility that
> > America's recovery will stall just as Asia hits the buffers. China's
> > manufacturing index has been falling since January, with a downward
> > lurch in June to 50.4, just above the break-even line of 50. Momentum
> > seems to be flagging everywhere, whether in Australian building
> > permits, Turkish exports, or Japanese industrial output.
>
> > On Friday, Jacques Cailloux from RBS put out a "double-dip alert" for
> > Europe. "The risk is rising fast. Absent an effective policy
> > intervention to tackle the debt crisis on the periphery over coming
> > months, the European economy will double dip in 2011," he said.
>
> > It is obvious what that policy should be for Europe, America, and
> > Japan. If budgets are to shrink in an orderly fashion over several
> > years – as they must, to avoid sovereign debt spirals – then central
> > banks will have to cushion the blow keeping monetary policy ultra-
> > loose for as long it takes.
>
> > The Fed is already eyeing the printing press again. "It's appropriate
> > to think about what we would do under a deflationary scenario," said
> > Dennis Lockhart for the Atlanta Fed. His colleague Kevin Warsh said
> > the pros and cons of purchasing more bonds should be subject to
> > "strict scrutiny", a comment I took as confirmation that the Fed Board
> > is arguing internally about QE2.
>
> > Perhaps naively, I still think central banks have the tools to head
> > off disaster. The question is whether they will do so fast enough, or
> > even whether they wish to resist the chorus of 1930s liquidation
> > taking charge of the debate. Last week the Bank for International
> > Settlements called for combined fiscal and monetary tightening,
> > lending its great authority to the forces of debt-deflation and mass
> > unemployment. If even the BIS has lost the plot, God help us.
>
> Our government is proving that it will not handle large problems if
> it involves possibly offending some ethnic minority group.
>
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